San Francisco's median resale condominium prices from November through January stayed steady from the same period a year ago, leading some analysts and real estate agents to conclude that values have settled into a range where they are likely to remain for some time.
According to city data analyzed by the Polaris Group, a San Francisco real estate firm that crunches housing numbers, the median price for a resale condo in the city - as opposed to a newly built unit - was $638,000 in the threemonth period ending Jan. 31.
That figure was essentially the same as the three-month period ending in January 2009 and was the first time since September 2008 that the median price has not experienced a year-over-year decline.
Analysts believe that housing prices across the Bay Area generally have begun to stabilize, but could be derailed by several factors, including a new wave of foreclosures, mortgage interest rate hikes and the Federal Reserve ending a program to buy mortgage-backed securities.
Chris Foley, a principal at Polaris, said that another big price dip is not likely to happen in San Francisco, given the city's relative shortage of existing housing inventory and a dearth of new construction coming onto the market. Prices currently are about where they were in 2004, he noted.
"Barring a cataclysmic event, either financial or natural, like an earthquake, we believe we are at the bottom and won't see great price appreciation for a while," said Foley. "There's no inventory overhang and there won't be any new construction for a while."
Foley said condo resales are a credible market indicator because they represent the biggest percentage of sales. Owners also generally are not under as much pressure to sell units as quickly as developers of new buildings, who are attempting to pay off construction loans, he said.
Foley said he believes that the market stabilization resulted from sellers becoming more realistic about prices the market would bear and buyers taking advantage of low interest rates and a lull in prices.
Some San Francisco real estate brokers say the market feels much improved from a year ago. They are seeing building owners return units to the market as condos that had been built in the past couple of years, but which had been rented out as apartments because sales were weak.
"The stock market crash in 2008 really changed things for a while and the beginning of last year was slow, but buyers are coming out again," said Realtor Eileen Bermingham.
Figures from another real estate research firm, DataQuick Information Systems, shows that resale condo prices are indeed back in the 2004 range. That year, the median price was $610,000. One year later, the median had jumped to $714,500.
A noticeable change in values started in 2004, when after three straight years in the $500,000 bracket, prices climbed another $100,000. The market hit its peak in May 2007, at $826,000.
Condo resales have seen less fluctuation than new units - particularly the ones at luxury downtown locales. Those buildings, many of them high-rises, started coming on the scene nearly a decade ago and sold briskly into 2008.
The 60-story Millennium Tower at 301 Mission St., for example, started selling units in November 2007 for an average of $2.5 million. By February of 2009, the Millennium had slashed prices by as much as 15 percent.
Waning interest in expensive new properties, in conjunction with banks reluctant to approve construction loans, has brought residential building in San Francisco to a near standstill.
As a result, it's likely that future construction will lag well behind an improved economy and job growth.
Source: SFGate.com; by: Robert Selna
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